Macro Regime Snapshot
Business Cycle
Mid CycleRisk
Risk-OnDollar
Weak USDCredit
TightYield Curve
NormalComposite
+0.34
Risk-on mid cycle: broad equity leadership; watch for momentum names. · Weak USD — tailwind for EM and commodities. · Credit tight — favourable backdrop for risk assets.
Top 10 — Long-Term Watchlist2–3 year horizon
| Rank↑ | Ticker↕ | Name↕ | Group↕ | 3M RS↕ | 6M RS↕ | 12M RS↕ | Score↕ | RRG↕ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IWM | Russell 2000 | Benchmark | +0.9% | +5.3% | +10.9% | 0.90 | Leading |
| 1 | SOXX | Semiconductors | Industry | +24.7% | +48.9% | +74.8% | 0.90 | Leading |
| 3 | EEM | Emerging Markets | Intl | -1.6% | +13.5% | +17.6% | 0.85 | Improving |
| 4 | EWZ | Brazil | Intl | -2.4% | +23.4% | +34.7% | 0.85 | Lagging |
| 5 | XLK | Technology | Sector | +10.0% | +5.9% | +9.2% | 0.85 | Leading |
| 6 | DBC | Broad Commodities | Asset Class | +17.5% | +29.9% | +29.9% | 0.81 | Lagging |
| 7 | XLE | Energy | Sector | +0.5% | +25.6% | +24.2% | 0.80 | Lagging |
| 7 | USO | Crude Oil | Asset Class | +59.9% | +89.4% | +70.0% | 0.80 | Weakening |
| 7 | ^VIX | VIX Volatility | Volatility | -5.8% | +20.3% | +12.1% | 0.80 | Lagging |
| 10 | CPER | Copper | Asset Class | -1.7% | +4.8% | +20.4% | 0.79 | Improving |
Top 10 — Short-Term Signals
3–20 day · Informational only| Rank↑ | Ticker↕ | Name↕ | 20D RS↕ | 5D RS↕ | Brk 20D↕ | Brk 52W↕ | CMF-5↕ | ST Score↕ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | XSD | Semis Equal Wt | +35.2% | +15.0% | ✓ | ✓ | 0.42 | 1.38 |
| 2.00 | SOXX | Semiconductors | +29.7% | +10.5% | ✓ | ✓ | 0.48 | 1.37 |
| 3.00 | XLK | Technology | +10.2% | +3.3% | ✓ | ✓ | 0.40 | 1.32 |
| 4.00 | QQQ | Nasdaq 100 | +5.0% | +1.8% | ✓ | ✓ | 0.35 | 1.30 |
| 5.00 | EEM | Emerging Markets | +4.2% | -0.4% | ✓ | ✓ | 0.22 | 1.25 |
| 6.00 | SPY | S&P 500 | 0.0% | 0.0% | ✓ | ✓ | 0.25 | 1.22 |
| 7.00 | OIH | Oil Services | -4.9% | +8.6% | ✓ | ✓ | 0.45 | 1.18 |
| 8.00 | USO | Crude Oil | +2.2% | +13.6% | — | — | 0.40 | 1.09 |
| 9.00 | ICLN | Clean Energy | +0.2% | +2.5% | — | — | -0.04 | 1.02 |
| 10.00 | IWM | Russell 2000 | +1.1% | -0.2% | — | — | 0.05 | 1.01 |